Elections focus: do the London borough elections spell trouble for Labour's future in the capital?

What’s happening? 

‘All-out’ elections across the capital’s 32 boroughs this May means over 1,800 seats and five directly elected mayoral positions in Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham and Tower Hamlets are up for grabs. 

With Labour’s triumphs in 2022 at Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnet a distant memory, nervousness among the party in the capital is rife. An increasingly fragmented political landscape and campaigns that cut across traditional party loyalties are predicted to drive Labour losses across the city, from inner-city strongholds to volatile outer-London marginals. 

And with Labour facing threats from across the political spectrum in most if not all boroughs, the party will be battling to know where best to place its resources on the ground as it prepares for losses, especially to the Greens. 

The key issues 

• Foreign policy – opposition to the Government’s stance on Gaza and broader Middle East policies are expected to drive support for independents and the Green Party
• Council finances – increasing frustration and public distrust as London councils continue to grapple with financial strains, giving rise to concerns around forthcoming council tax rises
• The bigger picture – local elections offer an easy and immediate route for kicking an unpopular government 

Races to watch 

In Westminster and Wandsworth, the Conservatives will be fighting to reassert relevance after losing control in 2022, while the Greens are targeting breakthroughs in Hackney, Lambeth and Lewisham, and Reform in Havering, Bexley and Hillingdon. Whether Aspire can keep hold of Tower Hamlets will be another interesting battle. 

Zoom out 

The number of defections from Labour to the Greens in recent months has set the tone for what to expect on 7 May. 

And while Labour will expect to retain its majority of councils within the capital, any serious erosion of support will certainly fuel a wider narrative of disaffection with the Starmer government and raise questions around its leadership and direction. 

Sadiq Khan will be also watching carefully ahead of the 2028 mayoral elections. Much can change over the next two years but significant Labour losses in the capital could drive a wedge between Whitehall and City Hall and weaken the Government’s push to regain trust and popularity.