Elections focus: The Midlands - a political barometer?

Results in the Midlands are likely to reveal the national mood with Labour bracing itself for heavy losses as its vote fragments in favour of insurgent Reform UK and the Green Party alongside the rise of local independent candidates.

The metropolitan boroughs of the bellwether West Midlands are gearing up for what is expected to be a tumultuous election cycle in May. All seats are up for election in Birmingham, Coventry, Sandwell, Solihull and Walsall, while neighbouring Dudley and Wolverhampton are electing a third of seats.

Thirded elections are taking place in Newcastle under Lyme and were also expected in Cannock Chase, Tamworth, Nuneaton and Bedworth, Redditch and Rugby but local leaders here have controversially requested election postponements due to ongoing local government reorganisation which will see these councils replaced by new unitaries in 2028.

2026 is a quiet election year in the East Midlands. Labour will be seeking to retain political control at Lincoln City Council where one third of seats are up for election while the all out elections at North East Lincolnshire are fertile ground for Reform UK.

The key issues

• Bin strike – Birmingham’s lengthy industrial dispute means the city’s voters are in the mood for change.
• Finances – pressure on council finances means continued service cuts and limited room for manoeuvre for councillors. Devolved regional government could offer a way forward.
• Housing – councils will be seeking to address perennial housing shortages against the often-controversial redevelopment of neighbourhoods such as Druids Heath.

Races to watch

Reform is expected to make major gains in Dudley and Walsall while Zarah Sultana MP will be keen to show that Your Party can win in Coventry. Birmingham’s political leadership will look very different in May due to the retirement of many veteran councillors including deputy leader Sharon Thompson and the council’s long standing former leader Sir Albert Bore.

Zoom out

Any Labour losses in their urban heartlands will pile yet more pressure on the Prime Minister. 

The growing rise of pro-Palestine candidates will be a trend to watch in the region with independents also likely where there have been party disputes around candidate selections.

Former red wall councils are ripe for Reform UK gains as Nigel Farage targets symbolic victories in the West Midlands – but watch out for anti-Reform tactical voting which could lead to some unexpected results.

West Midlands mayor Richard Parker will be keeping a close eye on results especially in neighbouring Warwickshire, where county council proposals for local government reorganisation have stressed the importance of the county becoming part of the West Midlands Combined Authority.