Elections focus: Scottish Parliament: a high-stakes election with UK-wide consequences.

What’s happening? 

The Scottish electorate goes to the polls on 7 May to decide who controls major public services like education and health, in what could be one of the most significant Scottish Parliament elections since its inception. 

Will the SNP win a majority? Could a heavy defeat for Labour at Holyrood ripple through Downing Street? How much support does Reform UK really have in Scotland? 

With a partial proportional representation system – electing 129 MSPs through both constituencies and regional lists – securing a majority at Holyrood is far harder than under first past the post. The incumbent minority SNP administration is targeting the magic number of 65 and, unusually for a party in power for 19 years and dogged by internal controversy, is enjoying its largest poll lead in over three years, sitting 18 point ahead of both Reform UK and Labour. 

Many argue this is not due to its record in government – which is long lambasted by opponents for missed targets and declining living standards – but rather the implosion of Labour and the Conservatives south of the border, which has stymied any serious challenger in Scotland. 

New kid on the block Reform UK, which only selected its first Scottish leader in January, is now seen by many as the favourite for second place. 

The key issues 

• Energy – despite rapid renewable energy growth in Scotland, debate over North Sea oil and gas continues. The war in Iran has brought this into sharper focus. 
• Independence – while only 13 per cent of voters rank the question of independence among their top three issues, the SNP has again suggested a majority would pave the way for a second referendum, meaning it’s still at the heart of debate ahead of May. 
• Cost of living – the economy is front of mind, with voters keen to hear what parties are proposing to put more money in people’s pockets. 

Races to watch

While the SNP is set to dominate the constituency vote, seats in Aberdeenshire and the Borders will be interesting to watch, as Reform UK targets former SNP-Tory battlegrounds. ‘Anti-Reform’ tactical voting here could boost the nationalists towards securing an outright majority. 

Zoom out

Another SNP triumph, alongside a Plaid Cymru win in Wales, would result in the remarkable scenario of first ministers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all committed to breaking up the United Kingdom, which could thrust the future of the union back to the top of the agenda. 

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s high hopes of becoming First Minister just 18 months ago have faded, with blame laid at the door of Sir Keir Starmer. Could a poor result in May sound the death knell for the Prime Minister’s time in Number 10?